After Macron, le déluge – POLITICO

The wave of protests across France in recent weeks to oppose President Emmanuel Macron’s unpopular pension reforms shows no signs of slowing down. Cities including Paris and Lyon erupted in riots just days ago, as black-clad protesters lit bonfires and hurled projectiles at riot police, with more than 400 police officials injured as a result. Though Macron himself seems firm in his presidential position until the last day of his term in 2027, concern is growing over what may happen when he leaves. The coming power vacuum could be filled by the far-left or far-right factions in parliament, as the country’s ruling party could cease to exist without him.

Macron will leave behind a leaderless and rudderless ruling party that risks disintegrating without him. His centrist Renaissance group was solely created to put Macron in the presidential palace and to support his government, and there are few indications that it will continue to exist without him. The current rebellion against the pension reform has exposed Renaissance as an impotent platform, and its rebellion is a sign of the disarray of the mainstream center-right in France. This party has produced most of France’s leaders since World War II and is now a mere shadow of its former self.

As the pension crisis emboldens far-left and far-right factions in parliament, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left firebrand and leader of France Unbowed, is ideally suited to produce revolutionary soundbites. However, it seems unlikely he would take power in 2027, as just 21 percent of the French see him as best positioned to lead the opposition. In contrast, Marine Le Pen, the far-right chief defeated twice by Macron in presidential elections, has established herself as the leader of her party’s 88-strong delegation in the French parliament. Since her last defeat, she has abandoned an electorally-disastrous plan to exit the eurozone and has shifted towards making herself look presidential while continuing to detoxify her party’s image.

The country’s current prime minister, Édouard Philippe, has also been quietly biding his time as mayor of Le Havre, a mid-sized port city. While he is well-liked and has been presented as the best candidate for France’s next president, his support for the retirement age to be raised to 67 has left behind poor polling results among the populous. While he has not yet confirmed his candidacy in 2027, global tensions and his association with Macron may both prove to be drags on his prospects if he decides to enter the race. As for Le Pen’s movement, National Rally, Le Pen suggests that it will be them, rather than another party or coalition, which will stand to fill the post-Macron power vacuum.



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